Last season (2020-2021), Ja Morant averaged 30 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists on 58% true shooting in his playoff debut against the top-seeded Jazz, which included a 47 point explosion in Game 2. This season (2021-2022), he won the NBA's Most Improved Player award.
The purpose of the Most Improved Player award has been to honor players who were previously overlooked or dismissed, but who then put their name on the map by unexpectedly improving a great deal. That "unexpected" part is very important: this is why the award historically hasn't gone to sophomore players. We generally expect rapid progression from players as they go from rookie to sophomore. Past winners such as CJ McCollum, Pascal Siakam, and Zach Randolph are perhaps the best examples of what the Most Improved Player award has historically been all about. Those guys were almost complete unknowns outside of their respective teams fan-bases prior to their award winning seasons. Their statistical improvements were staggering, but the most consequential factor was their improved status within the collective consciousness of the NBA's fans and analysts. Those three players are definitely in the upper echelon of modern MIP winners, so their incredible ascents aren't necessarily the precedent, but they exemplify the spirit of the award. With that in mind, let's look at why Ja's victory doesn't make sense.
Long before Ja Morant ever played a second of NBA basketball, he was already being touted as a generational talent. People constantly described him as "Russell Westbrook with a jump shot". He was taken at #2 in the 2019 draft, but he UNDOUBTEDLY would've gone #1 if he hadn't been in the same draft class as Zion Williamson, the most sensational and hyped-up prospect since LeBron James. The consensus was that if he stayed healthy, he'd become a superstar who would bring dignity to the Memphis Grizzlies franchise. This alone doesn't kill Ja's MIP case, because hyped up draft prospects don't always pan out. But the thing is, Ja never ended up having a disappointing start to his career. The hype around him never died out, because he has followed a pretty standard NBA superstar trajectory all the way from his rookie season to his MIP victory. Ja won the Rookie of the Year award in his first season. Then in his sophomore year he averaged 19/4/7.5 on 53.7% TS in the regular season, and led the young Grizzlies to the playoffs. In the play-in tournament, his clutch 35/6/6 performance allowed the Grizzlies to secure a playoff spot by upsetting Steph Curry's Warriors. During the 2021 season, the majority of NBA fans agreed that Ja Morant should've been selected as an All-Star over the veteran Mike Conley. Conley's All-Star selection was understood to be a "lifetime achievement" award; for many years he was All-Star caliber player who never made the team due to the Western Conference being uniquely saturated with fantastic guards, and the fact that he played for a small-market team. So by his sophomore year, Ja was already a Rookie of the Year and an All-Star caliber player.
Then there was the playoff performance I mentioned in the beginning. In that 1st round playoff series against the Jazz, Ja went above and beyond the already-lofty "All-Star caliber" status he attained in the regular season. Morant’s entire offensive game is built around attacking the rim; most of his points are in the paint. In this series he was playing against the Utah Jazz; the Jazz's defense is anchored by Rudy Gobert, who is the best rim protector in the league by a comfortable margin. Ja Morant managed to put up elite offensive numbers on great efficiency despite this. His offensive performance outshined that of Utah's Donovan Mitchell, who at that point was known as an extremely elite scorer.
By the end of the 2021 season, Ja Morant was understood to be on a superstar trajectory. He checked all the boxes. He was a sensational draft prospect, he won Rookie of the Year, he progressed to an All-Star level in his sophomore year, and in the postseason he met the moment and played at a genuinely elite level.
This past season (2022), Ja went from star to superstar; from last season to this season, he made an undeniably huge leap, both statistically and popularity-wise. This improvement could potentially justify him winning the award, if and only if we dismiss the fact that
1) for the most part, fans already expected him to ascend from star to superstar
and
2) "star to superstar" leaps have never really been what MIP is about
However, this reasoning would still be very flawed, because it would still remain that his "star to superstar" progression in the categories mentioned above (statistical output and popularity) did not start anytime this season.
Statistical Leap: His statistical leap happened during last year's postseason. Ja's stats in the 2021 postseason (30+ PPG, 5+RPG, and 8+ APG on 58% TS through 6 games) would be considered great postseason numbers for a player who averaged 27.4/5.7/6.7 on 57.5% TS (Ja's 2022 regular season stats) in the regular season.
Popularity: This one is harder to argue against, because this season Ja became one of the league's most viral, must-watch performers. However, the most prominent reasons for his popularity (his spectacular athleticism, high-flying playstyle, and cocky/fiery personality) were already present in him before this season. He was already known for having these easily likeable/marketable traits; his increased popularity came because for the first time, these superstar traits were matched with superstar team success and superstar production. Additionally, much of his hype died down in the latter chunk of the season after he began sitting out due to injury. In his absence, the Memphis Grizzlies dominated even more than before. Public opinion soured on Ja; he became the target of a great deal of criticism, both unironic ("Does Ja Morant's play-style hinder his team?") and ironic ("Who would win: the Warriors with Curry and Durant, or the Grizzlies without Ja?").
Ja being named the 2022 MIP makes even less sense when you consider other players' cases for the award. The candidate pool for this season’s MIP is one of the most stacked in recent memory. Here are some of my favorite candidates:
Ja Morant's teammate, Desmond Bane, went from a single-digit scoring bench player to the 2nd scoring option on the 2nd seed Grizzlies. He has blossomed into one of the best complementary pieces in the league. He has had one of the biggest leaps out of anyone in terms of his raw numbers. With an increase of 7.6 minutes per game, his PPG increased by 9 (his primary role is scoring). The only thing holding him back is the fact that he's a 2nd year player.
Promising 2nd year guard Tyrese Maxey has a very similar case to Desmond Bane. This season he blossomed into a main scoring option for a contending 76ers team. Most impressive has been the fact that his status as the 76ers' 2nd scoring option has endured and even grown despite Philly's acquisition of James Harden, who is a former MVP and multiple time scoring champion. His statistical increases are staggering: +9.5 PPG on +6% TS, and +2.3 APG. However, these increases are paired with an increase of 20 minutes per game, which hurts Maxey's case because it is likely that his stats last year were artificially lowered by his lack of playing time. Also, much like Bane he is a 2nd year player, so him winning MIP would go against that rarely-broken precedent.
Jordan Poole had one of the worst seasons in league history his rookie year (it wasn't last year like some seem to think, but it still contributes to the unexpectedness of his performance in the 2022 season). His sophomore year was also quite rough, and it included a brief stint in the G League. In the first half of this past season he emerged as one of the best 6th men in the league. It should be noted that this was merely a continuation of Poole's great stretch of games in the last leg of the 2021 season. However, the strength of his MIP case largely comes from the unprecedented leap he took post All-Star break, especially after Curry got injured and left Poole to fill the void (which no one expected him to do). In this stretch, he averaged around 23.5-26 PPG with 5-6 AST (depending on which stretch you use), with Curry-esque efficiency. He genuinely seems like a borderline superstar now. If Poole had been at this level for the entire year, he'd obviously be a lock for MIP, but in my opinion even just half a year of this unexpected dominance is enough to make his MIP case super strong (especially because his play in the 1st half of the season on its own was good enough to make him a top 10 MIP candidate, arguably top 5).
Darius Garland, much like Poole, had one of the worst seasons in league history his rookie year. This helps his MIP case for the same reason it helps Poole's. Additionally, Garland was at the helm of a very young Cavaliers team that defied all expectations; until Jarrett Allen’s unfortunate injury, the Cavaliers were competing for a high seed in a loaded Eastern Conference. Much of this unexpected winning was the result of Garland’s growth as a playmaker and scorer, which earned him his first All Star selection. He established himself as the future of his franchise, a label that was previously assigned to the Cavaliers’ other promising young guard, Colin Sexton. However, there are some factors which hurt Garland’s case quite substantially. First, the aforementioned injury to Jarrett Allen resulted in a disappointing end to the Cavaliers’ season, as they slid down to the 8th seed. Second, a fair bit of the team’s success is attributed to their rookie Evan Mobely, whose defensive impact was more pronounced and immediate than anyone could’ve expected. Third, although his stats have taken a jump, his increases of +4.3 PPG and +2.7 APG are a fair bit lower than some of the other contenders in this race.
Dejounte Murray seems to be following in the footsteps of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili as a guard who was drafted late and molded into an unexpected star by the legendary San Antonio Spurs organization. Last season, Murray did a good job as part of Greg Popovich’s well oiled “everyone contributes” system, where Demar Derozan was the only clear leader besides Popovich himself. After Derozan left for Chicago, many expected the Spurs to have a rare tanking season. The Spurs proved them wrong by securing an identical seed to last year and a similar point differential to playoff teams. This couldn't have done this without the rapid progression of Dejounte Murray. This season, Murray graduated from his role as a cog in the communal Spurs system; he successfully assumed the “leader” role that was previously held by the much older Derozan. He earned his first All Star selection in the competitive Western Conference, putting up 21/8/9 on 57.4% TS. He increased his PPG by 5.4, his RPG by 2.2, and his APG by 3.8, despite only playing 3 more minutes per game than last year. He has one of the most impressive statistical improvements of any candidate.
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